5.30.2007

The Bad Economics of a 65nm Monolithic Quad-Core

As AMD will soon release Barcelona, it will claim industry first to “native” quad core. Intel on the other hand laughs at the idea as bad economics and foolhardy for the sake of recognition. Producing a monolithic quad core doesn’t make economic sense – according to Intel. Actually even AMD once touted the advantage of a smaller die – ZDNET 2002. But who do you think is correct this time?

The only way to settle this is to try and compute the cost-per-die value of Barcelona against its main rival, the Penryn MCM quad-core. I once claimed that Barcelona costs $174/die to make while it will only cost Intel $53/die to produce a competing product. While it is impossible to prove claims that involve revealing closely guarded secrets such as Fab yield and defect density, it is still possible to demonstrate the impact die size and the native approach has on the economic feasibility of the product.

What we already know:
Barcelona QC die size: 283mm^2
Penryn DC die size: 107mm^2 (214mm^2 for a QC)

To compute gross die per wafer (GDPW), we’ll use the standard formula: {[Pi * (Wafer Diameter/2) ^ 2] / Die Area} - {[pi * Wafer diameter] / (2 * Die Area) ^ 1/2}. Edge exclusion equally ignored. This gives us the result:
AMD at 300mm GDPW = 211; AMD at 200mm GDPW = 79 (quad core dies)
Intel at 300mm GDPW = 622 (dual core dies)

I know that no Fabs are the same, but for the sake of this analysis, let’s assume that defect density at 0.2d/cm2 is equal for Intel and AMD. For Yield we’ll use the Negative Binomial yield model which is commonly used and apply a midrange alpha of 1 for both Fabs, assuming defects follows a gamma distribution. The formula for yield is as follows: [(1+ DieSize*DefectDensity)/alpha]^-alpha
This gives the result:
Wafer yield for Barcelona QC = 63.86%
Wafer yield for Penryn DC = 82.37%
This shows how random defects negatively impacts the bigger die.

Applying the yield against the GDPW this gives the result (GDPW * Yield):
AMD 300mm DPW = 134 ; AMD 200mm DPW = 50 (good QC dies per wafer)
Intel 300mm DPW = 512 (good DC dies per wafer)
Since Intel needs 2 dies to make a QC, each wafer can only yield half: 512/2 = 256 possible QC dies

Assuming once again for argument sake that AMD and Intel has equal Cost Per Wafer. This number is quite complicated as it involves Equipment costs, Depreciation, Direct Labor, materials and Fab utilization so we’ll leave the number equal for both companies to focus only on the impact die size on profitability.

Using the numbers above, in order for Intel to make a quad core MCM Penryn at $53, it has to keep its cost per wafer at $13600 per wafer ($13600/256≈$53). Now if AMD has the same $13600 cost per wafer, its cost per die becomes ≈ $100 at 300mm and ≈$267 at 200mm. Averaging the two if we assume equal loading at Fab30 and Fab36 will give us $184 per die for Barcelona.

The numbers I earlier claimed even comes off as conservative. If we even start to consider the added cost of AMD’s SOI wafer and additional metal layers, the numbers even gets worst for AMD. Again let me reiterate that the numbers above assumes a lot of equal parameters between AMD and Intel which is entirely the opposite in real life. Yet still, the message remains obvious, the impact of a 283mm^2 monolithic quad core on cost per die is massive. The big gap in cost per die between the two competing companies prove that Intel is correct in waiting for 45nm make the same "native" quad core move.

Update: Just in case anyone is wondering, Clovertown's cost is at $76. This is amazing considering Clovertown total die size (143mm^2 * 2) is roughly equal to Barcelona which is 50% more expensive.

173 comments:

Anonymous said...

AMD sucks.

enumae said...

What would happen if you apply your calculations to Penryn, and assume it to be a native quad core?

How does that effect yields and cost per die?

Thanks

Axel said...

Good analysis, except that a 200-mm wafer would have a much lower cost than a 300-mm wafer. $13,600 for a 300-mm wafer would mean roughly $6000 for a 200-mm wafer.

AMD's cost per die would now be ~$100 at 300-mm and $120 at 200-mm. Averaging the two gives us $110.

Then we factor in SOI and the extra metal layers.

Roborat, Ph. D. said...

That would make penryn a 214sqmm QC die.
GDPW is 291 QC dies.
Yield model drops Intel's yield to 70%, giving an effective 204 dies/wafer.
Keeping the same $13600 cost/wafer, cost-per-die drops to $66/die for Intel if we assume Penryn is a single chip QC.
This is against AMD's $100/die on a similar 300mm wafer.

Scientia from AMDZone said...

Okay, now I understand the mistakes in your calculations.

If you want an accurate estimate you need to do two things:

1.) Drop the 200mm calculations since AMD is not insane enough to try to build a 90nm Barcelona on FAB 30. FAB 30 is strictly 90nm until the 300mm conversion.

2.) A 1:1 comparison of Intel 45nm to AMD 65nm is an obvious mismatch. On the other hand, we have to give Intel some lead because they will ramp 45nm faster. Your best bet is to figure both 65 and 45nm for both Intel and AMD and then use a different mix adjustment. A good rough comparison might be 30% 45nm for Intel and 10% 45nm for AMD.

Roborat, Ph. D. said...

why would 200mm have half the cost of 300mm? It is correct to assume lesser cost but the difference would never be significant. 200mm would still take the same amount of time to process, use the same type of tools and same amount of direct labour. Material/consumable cost is minute compared to equipment cost more so the difference between material cost running 300mm vs 200mm. This is precisely the reason why the industry is moving towards larger wafers.

Scientia from AMDZone said...

If you want to make further tweaks:

You can add about $8,000 for the cost of SOI on AMD's 300mm wafers.

You can also add about 10% to AMD's cost for manufacturing 65nm.

However, I wouldn't use any offset on manufacturing cost at 45nm since Intel's double pass requirement roughly cancels out AMD's added layers.

Roborat, Ph. D. said...

Scientia:

for item 2.
the question that i'm trying to get answered is the feasibility of AMD's decision to make quad cores on the 65nm node.
Intel's argument why they chose to only implement a single die QC at 45nm is primarily because of cost. This blog just demonstrated intel's logic.

Obviously when AMD goes 45nm with Barcelona, cost/die drops and everything will be better. But the important question that needs to be answered is whether AMD is doing Barcelon at 65nm just to gain perceived leadership while sacrificing its margins - which really is directly opposite to Intel's business discipline.

Anonymous said...

Is there any cost associated with packaging 4 die into an MCM that AMD would not have?

Anonymous said...

Let me get this straight. "Double pass" for 45nm will make it as expensive as 65nm says fanboy. That is stupid because yet again AMD fanboy spring theories and numbers without backing it up and stupid because according to you, Harpertown 45nm but costs like 65nm still costs less than Barcelona SOI and metal layers.

Anonymous said...

Overall, pretty good analysis...

One small nitpick on your wafer cost.

Actual wafer cost (assuming Bare Si wafer and 65nm process) is in the $3500 range - this includes labor, equipment depr, materials, fab floor space, utilities, etc). In AMD's case it is slightly higher for many of the reasons you outline (SOI, extra metal layer, additional processing for the extra strain tehcnologies AMD needs to employ to get the Idsat performance).

Before folks take your cost/die #'s and divide by ~3 ($3.5K wafer cost vs $13K you assume) and say they are getting gouged... You eventually need to add in 3mm edge exclusion (for your analysis this is not an issue as you are only comparing 1 process against another), add in a small amount of die spacing for dicing. Then you have to add all the assembly and test cost, including the packaging materials...

So even though your cost/wafer is considerably off, your cost/finished die is about on...

Anonymous said...

"If you want to make further tweaks:

You can add about $8,000 for the cost of SOI on AMD's 300mm wafers.

You can also add about 10% to AMD's cost for manufacturing 65nm.

However, I wouldn't use any offset on manufacturing cost at 45nm since Intel's double pass requirement roughly cancels out AMD's added layers."

Scientia - you have stated things like this countless times and YOU ARE HORRENDOUSLY MISINFORMED! AND PROVIDE NO SUPPORTING DATA TO SUBSTANTIATE YOUR CLAIMS!

#1) read the previous post, cost of a finished wafer is more in the $3500 range as opposed to the $13500 roborat back calculated. SOI would add ~$300-500 for cost of substrate (this would add ~10% to finished wafer cost). Your $8000 # is COMPLETELY CLUELESS AND UNSUBSTANTIATED and shows how little background you have in this area. Add $8000? Are you kidding me?!?!? Link to the extra $8000 SOI wafer cost please?

#2) Double pass litho is not a wash with an extra metal layer! In fact the current cost of an immersion litho tool is ~2X that of a 193nm dry tool and it runs at a slower rate. If you had any background in fab cost modeling or just a bit of common sense you would be able to see that a double pass 193nm dry litho is only marginally more expensive than a single immersion step (due to higher cost, slower throughput of immersion tools). Eventually the capital cost of the immersion tools will come down(a bit) - but this will benefit Intel more than AMD as the higher initial prices are born by the early adopters (much like any other industry). Typically this works against Intel, in the case of immersion Intel will be able to ride IBM's coattails on this one (much like Cu)

An extra metal layer involves 2 lithography steps, 2 etch steps, an ILD dep, an etch stop dep, a barrier/seed dep step, a Cu electroplate step, a CMP step, 2 ash/resist clean steps, and a fair # of clean steps. Now please tell me how this could be at all roughly equated to the extra pass on a double pass litho step? Any idea how much capital is need for a single metal layer?

Scientia, please stop commenting on manufacturing. Just look at your ridiculous analysis on AMD being in a better capacity situation than in 2005 by counting # of fabs and technology node and COMPLETELY EXCLUDING actual fab (wafer starts per week or per month) size.

Better to have people think you are a fool then to open your mouth and prove it.

Anonymous said...

"why would 200mm have half the cost of 300mm? It is correct to assume lesser cost but the difference would never be significant. 200mm would still take the same amount of time to process, use the same type of tools and same amount of direct labour. Material/consumable cost is minute compared to equipment cost more so the difference between material cost running 300mm vs 200mm. This is precisely the reason why the industry is moving towards larger wafers."


FYI - most benchmarks put the additional capital equipment and overall add processed wafer cost in the 1.3-1.5 range (meaning 300mm wafer is 1.3 to 1.5 times more expensive). This exludes yield considerations.

If 200mm was 1/2 the cost of 300mm there would be little economic impetus to go 300mm.

Scientia - look over Roborat's anlysis AGAIN. Even if you completely exclude the 200mm side of things, the native approach is still ~2X the MCM approach and this is with the very favorable assumption that AMD's wafer cost is equivalent to Intel's.

You are missing the point of Roborat's analysis and trying to twist it into an Intel vs AMD argument as you are want to do. Roborat's point is that when die size is significant (as is the case for a 65nm "native" quad core) , the yield impact (and hence cost) is significantly different for a "native" approach vs an MCM approach.

Given the relatively large die size on 65nm, there is a significant economic penalty for doing native approach and this is likely one of the reason Intel went with MCM approach only on 65nm . The other obvious reason is that time to market for an MCM solution of an existing design is obviously much quicker than developing a new quad design.

Either way Robo's #'s are not that far off - you can continue to try and attack the #'s and complain about 65nm vs 45nm because you don't like the #'s, but a 65nm native solution is just not competitive costwise with an MCM solution (whether it be 65nm and 45nm).

When you start factoring in other things, like more favorable bin splits for frequency and power (due to the ability to match dual cores after they are sorted) and the added manufacturing/capacity flexibility of being able to change dual/quadcore mix AFTER a wafer is out of the fab (as opposed to having to decide once the silicon is started 13 weeks earlier), Intel's decision to delay a native design until 45nm is a wise one.

Anonymous said...

This blog is a joke.

It's perfect for intel fanboys.

Intel fanboys: you all can come and gather here and live happy the rest of your lives with lies and FUD. ;-)

Heat said...

This blog is a joke.

It's perfect for intel fanboys.

Intel fanboys: you all can come and gather here and live happy the rest of your lives with lies and FUD. ;-)


Another stupid AMD fanboi perfectly content in his company's slideshows and FUD. Way to contribute something insightful to this blog keep up the good work.

Anonymous said...

The facts are threatening aren't they? This blog is much better than Sharikou or Scientia. Tell me one thing they have got right!

Scientia from AMDZone said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Scientia from AMDZone said...

I believe you'll find if you run a real comparison that Intel has an advantage with 65nm MCM versus AMD's 65nm native. The advantage of Intel would, of course, be larger with 45nm MCM versus 65nm native. However, the advantage falls off again as AMD moves to 45nm. The advantage drops even further when Intel moves to native quad with Nehalem.

I think you would find as well that the advantage with MCM even with 45nm is not greater than it was for Intel with 90nm on 300mm wafers versus AMD's 130nm on 200mm.

True, I don't have exact numbers for finished wafer costs; I've only seen estimates.

Anonymous said...

READ THE FUCKING TITLE MORON.

enumae said...

Scientia - Roborat, Ph. D

When Nehalem (native Quad core) actually arrives, and has an IMC and CSI, why would they need 12MB of cache?

Also, what effect will that have on Intel's die size, and then how would that effect this comparison?

Thanks.

Anonymous said...

I think a 4MB reduction in cache is more than enough to offset the extras in Nehalem.

Anonymous said...

Scientia - why must you spin, spin, spin and change the topic when you don't like the facts/argument.

This blog was not "Is AMD in worse off condition then when they were on 130nm 200mm vs Intel's 90nm 300mm?"

Nor is it a blog about whether things will get more even when things move to 45nm...

Nor is it a blog of who's better AMD or Intel...

You attempted to challenge Roborat on his argument on 65nm native quad core economics. You are clearly in the wrong on this and instead of just saying "you're right" or moving on... you argue tangential points in an effort to take the focus off the key point of this blog, which is:

The economics for AMD on 65nm native quad core is just not that good when compared to MCM approach.

Dr. Yield, PhD, MBA said...

Ok, let's look at this another way- additional revenue available per wafer. Eliminates disputes over differences in wafer cost or processing, and highlights topline impact (revenue).

For 65nm, Barcelona is ~16.9mm x 16.9mm including the scribe. With 3mm edge exclusion, that's 205 gross dpw.

For Clovertown, that is 2x Conroe die, which are ~9.5x11.4mm (1.2 aspect ratio based on die plot), which comes to 417 gross dpw with the same edge exclusion (or 208.5 Clovertowns- almost the same as Barcelona gross dpw).

I used the Murphy model for defect density impact (IC Knowledge calculator) and saw the following:

Def/cm^2 AMD netDPW Intel netDPW
.2 118 314 (157)
.15 135 336 (168)
.1 155 361 (180.5)

So on 65nm, all else equal (defect density, etc), the large monolithic approach yields 39,33, and 25 less quadcores per wafer at the given defect densities on 65nm.

At a $266/ASP for quad core (assume the are all cheap), that translates to $6700-10400 additional revenue per wafer. For 10k wspm, that's 66.7-104 MILLION/month additional in saleable product for the roughly the same material/labor cost (you can argue that Intel is cheaper or not cheaper, but the revenue doesn't change).

Impact of 45nm ramp? Pennryns yield out at 229-255 quadcores/wafer. So that's another 72-75 quadcores/wafer, or $19-20k/wafer assuming same ASP. And of course, it's safe to assume that Intel will charge more for Pennryn based quad-cores.

Any faulty assumptions here? Scientia?


BTW, 90nm/200mm is irrelevant to the argument- Barcelona isn't going to be made on it, and thee isn't any 65mm/200mm tooling, so it's a red herring. Wafer cost from 200-300mm tends to increase ~30%, for ~2.25X the number of die.

Roborat, Ph. D. said...

enumae said...

When Nehalem (native Quad core) actually arrives, and has an IMC and CSI, why would they need 12MB of cache?

it is obvious that the required cache Intel needs with an IMC/CSI is less but i don't have the right information what intel's final plans are to optimise silicon real estate. Intel always claims that they prefer cache over bandwidth (which could just be a marketing excuse) so it all depends how much cache size improves performance in a shared cache configuration.

Also, what effect will that have on Intel's die size, and then how would that effect this comparison?

This comparison focused on die size alone. If less cache leads to a smaller die then the benefits are straightforward,

enumae said...

Thank You.

Roborat, Ph. D. said...

dr. yield said: "Ok, let's look at this another way- additional revenue available per wafer."

i knew this will bring you out of the woodwork.

thanks for the alternative analysis.

plumber said...

Good analysis. However, you do need to count the cost of packaging. there are lot more wires to connect two dual-core dies together. Intel may need a 6-layer package and AMD only with 4-layer package. It make difference.

Also, if both companies have same talented people, AMD's die size should be samller than 2 times of Intel because the buffer drives short and need far less area. It may implicate that AMD put more logics in its Barcelona and will gain more on performance.

In the really world, everything is ideal. I beleive Intel does have some cost advantage, but it is not the reason Intel glues its CPU. Gluing two CPU has less challenge and can put the new CPU on the market faster. Native 4 cores has much more performance gain with higher risk. Intel has lot more money and can support two design team go different apporach. AMD can only afford one design approach: medium risk, medium performance. AMD will lose as long as Intel's higher performance design success.

roborat, ph.d said...

Hey, don't expect this analysis to be accurate. I make up this stuff to make the Intel fans feel good. But, they really feel good when we are sucking and fucking all night. Yum!

marry said...

Blogs are so informative where we get lots of information on any topic. Nice job keep it up!!
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