10.08.2007

AMD Finally Admits K10's Inferiority

AMD submitted scores to SPEC.org that finally puts an end to the debate. AMD’s K10 is inferior to Intel’s Core2 microarchitechture. At it’s current state Barcelona cannot even compare with its own higher clocked K8. Even if K10's clock speed is successfully improved to 3GHz, it still wouldn't be enough to overtake Intel.

We've warned on this blog how K10 will be dead on arrival and discussed how in its current broken state creates a conundrum of competing with its own product line at the low end of the performance scale. It seems that a lot of you who agreed are correct. The scores are worrying for AMD.

SPECint2006 (base/peak) - 2P system
AMD 1.9GHz - 9.97/11.3 (K10)
AMD 3.2GHz - 14.1/15.2 (K8)
Intel 2GHz - 14.2/15.6
Intel 3GHz - 18.9/20.8

SPECfp2006 (base/peak) - 2P system
AMD 1.9GHz - 10.7/11.2 (K10)
AMD 3.2GHz - 14.2/14.5 (K8)
Intel 2GHz - 14.5/16.9
Intel 3GHz - 18.4/21.4

You can make quite a lot extrapolation and analysis from the scores but you will ultimately arrive at the same conclusion. That the capability of AMD's new processor falls short and flat on its face. They may be single threaded benchmarks but they highlight the core potential of the design in terms of per-core unit processing ability. When Intel's 45nm processors arrive, Penryn next month and Nehalem less than a year from now, we can only expect the gap to increase.

Thanks to axel for raising the awareness.
RTW discussion here.

34 comments:

GutterRat said...

Roborat,

As written in my Blog Entry, on November 12 it's Game Over for these noobs.

There are only so many ways of saying we told you so to the non-believers.

Giant said...

When Intel's 45nm processors arrive, Penryn next month and Nehalem less than a year from now, we can only expect the gap to increase.

Indeed. 1600Mhz FSB w/ 800mhz FB-DIMM memory and 50% more L2 cache will help scaling.

Nehalem is a massive leap ahead for Intel's scaling in servers. The only reason AMD does OK in servers now is because they scale much better due to IMC and HyperTransport. Per core in single threaded they are no match for the Core micro-architecture.

With Nehalem we'll finally see the full potential of each 'Core' Core (excuse the pun!). Scientia predicted that Intel would not make massive changes to the core itself (aside from SMT). While there will be undoubtedly some changes I believe that he is more or less correct. They don't need to make massive changes with Nehalem, the per Core performance is already awesome. Nehalem is more about letting the full power of these cores out. With QuickPath and IMC they'll do just that.

Mo said...

AMD = Fail.

Amd fanies are all in panic. They don't know which way to turn because everywhere they look, it's one bad news after another.


Sharikock had to resort to comparing 8 Xeon cores with 16 AMD cores.... and claim both are 16 cores lol.

This is pathetic for AMD

Anonymous said...

You're totally cheating! You're comparing a 1.9GHz chip to a 2.0GHz chip!

AMD 1.9GHz - 9.97/11.3 (K10)
Intel 2GHz - 14.2/15.6

I'm fairly certain that a 0.1GHz increase in K10 will lead to ~50% better performance and overtake Intel clock for clock! Also you fail to throw in Penryn which I'm fairly certain LOWERS performance over the current 65nm Core2 architecture?!?

What I said 40% better clock for clock? Crap it's gonna be tough moving these things! Can we call this thing the Barcelona "Black Edition"?

Also I should not forget to note that you also failed to look at the new MEGATASKING PLATFORMANCE benchmark and normalize that to "average CPU power"!

Sincerely,
Hector Ruiz
CEO / New head of sales and marketing

SPARKS said...

Well there it is. If anyone anywhere wondered why all the nonsense for the past 9 months here's your answer. They had nothing, and they never did.

They have some friends in the press who will no doubt manage to ignore this story.

I just can't imagine all the people who parted with good money to buy stock based on Power Point Presentations and launches for nearly 3Q’s. If I were a new AMD shareholder, I would be furious with AMD, the analysts, and a biased press for supporting 6 months of hype and misrepresentation.

I can see why the value of AMD stock is so favorable with the financial institutions, which are under heavy accumulation, by the way. They own the preferred stock. In the event of a AMD melt down, the common stock, (yeah, the little guys), gets eaten first. Ma and pop investors take the big hit. Kmart did it in 2002. The share price went to 95 cents a share. Then they reorganized under Chapter 11, downsized considerably, and reopened, albeit much smaller.

At this juncture, I am quite certain at their current level of debt, this will be a very attractive option since AMD does have a sellable product to survive at the lower end of the market, until the time they could take another shot at the big guy. Unfortunately, ATI, once a great company, will go by the way of DFX and others.

This has been a corporate fiasco since its inception. The Perfect Storm was an understatement.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/1775697.stm

SPARKS

Giant said...

AMD TRIPLE CRIPPLE TALIBAN DETAILS:

http://www.vr-zone.com/articles/AMD_Triple-Core_Is_Phenom_7-Series/5327.html

AMD plans to launch the new Triple-Core processor family by Q1 next year and it will be called Phenom 7-series instead. The codename for the Triple-core processors is Toliman, a 65nm quad-core Agena core based with one core disabled. VR-Zone has learned that there will be 2 models at launch; Phenom 7700 and 7600 clocked at 2.5GHz and 2.3GHz respectively. Both processors will be AM2+ based, 3 x 512LB of L2 cache, 2MB of shared L3 cache and has TDP of 89W. We can expect DVT samples to be available by January, production by February and launch by March 2008

2.5Ghz Tri Core? That's pathetic. BaronMatrix previously predicted a speed of 3.4Ghz for Tri core CPU.

Apparently 2.5Ghz is the 'higher frequency' that comes from a tri core over a quad core CPU. We now know that AMD will not exceed 2.5Ghz quad core for desktops.

Forget this upcoming junk. If someone wants a good multicore CPU go grab a Q6600 for $277.99 and be done with it.

Anonymous said...

"We can expect DVT samples to be available by January, production by February and launch by March 2008"

Funny, just give me a quad core - I'll punch a hole in it and I can pretty much get you a "native" (read - DEFECTIVE!) DVT sample TODAY. Of course nothing AMD has runs at 2.3 yet alone 2.5GHz...so the tri core I would make would run at 1.9GHz...I'd call it the "energy efficient, black edition megatasker"! Not really sure why it will take to January to get DVT samples out the door - there should be plenty of crappy die that have failed at sort by now.

These clockspeeds should make it RATHER OBVIOUS that the issue is not "one slow core" it is one non-functional core! I love reading these armchair Si technologists say well they probably just have a frequency mismatch and they can just turn off the slow core and then have a real fast tri core.

And if you are listening to Baronmatrix, Dementia or Abinstein, well I hope it's purely for comedic relief...because none of these folks has a clue about Si process technology. You have Abinstein claiming that AMD has 50-100% better yield than Intel (yet somehow Intel has better margiins and is profitable while AMD is not) and Scientia just pulling clockspeeds out of the air and empirically calculating time between steppings without having a clue of what goes into one... then when you call him on it, he says give me a link proving me wrong (while he provides no link to back up the initial assertion)

On a serious note the power #'s are a bit disappointing- I would have thought AMD might have been able to bin these lower given one of the cores is disabled.

...but I'm sure their highK 45nm process will take care of that - what you mean AMD is not doing that on 45nm? errr... strike that comment...but Scientia keeps telling me they are closing the gap...I'm just so confused... what happens when they scale the gate oxide? Oh they can't? Well how will they get the normal 30-40% transistor improvement between generations? What they've said they are targetting just 20%? But at least they are using the more expensive immersion litho technology! They are just so much more advanced than Intel who manages to get by with "old" , "cheaper" equipment - Intel only wishes they were forced to use the more expensive, cooler stuff! Heck they even use fewer metal layers and cheaper substrates!

Wait a second you are telling me that despite all of this old technology Intel still has better process metrics (as observed in actual SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATION like IEDM)? So this whole power issue on P4 was an ARCHITECTURAL issue and not a process issue? But I keep reading how great SOI is...arghh, now I'll have to go back to Dementia's and Abinstein's blogs and read up on the "facts".

BTW - IT SHOULD BE TRI NOT TRIPLE!
two cores != DOUBLE core
four cores != QUADRUPLE core

Anonymous said...

On an unrelated note - INTC, AMD Q3 earnings announcements are next week...

of course I use the words "earnings announcement" loosely with AMD, I should say "losses announcement" or "lack of earnings announcement"

Any bets on an AMD bait and switch on or around the announcement? Meaning, I would expect AMD to announce a sale of something, a product announcement, or some other attempt to distract people's attention away from the earnings report.

Anonymous said...

hey scientia whats up where you is gurl

Anonymous said...

Well there it is. If anyone anywhere wondered why all the nonsense for the past 9 months here's your answer. They had nothing, and they never did.

Yeah. As disappointing as the news from AMD is, you could see it coming. AMD fans probably hate Ed Stroligo, but for months he has been pointing out that everything that AMD has been doing pointed to a disappointing product launch.

So here we are with a disappointing product launch, and all the talk about lawsuits and monopolies and yields and per-watt performance and all of that other BS is just as useful as it ever is... which is to say, not much at all.

Wishful thinking doesn't improve your ASPs, it doesn't improve your yields, it doesn't sell product, and it doesn't "close the gap" in R&D. It does provide some entertainment, but not in the way the wishful thinkers would want.

Anonymous said...

on the fosho? really? AMD admitting something?

InTheKnow said...

Scientia said ...
Even a obviously biased Intel fan like Ou claimed that Barcelona would do worst in comparison to Intel at 2.0Ghz. I'll wait for faster clocks to start saying the sky is falling

I'm not interested in flaming Scientia here. I just want to know if anyone can explain explain to a simple process guy how the heck IPC can increase as clock rates go up? Because I'm assuming that the only way a processor breaks away from a linear increase with clockspeed is for IPC to increase.

I have a friend who is a designer for NVIDIA that used to work for Intel. I'll pick his brain too, but this really flies in the face of the little bit I thought I knew about micro-architecture.

sparks said...

In the Know,

Who the hell would be crazy enough to challenge you????

“Forget this upcoming junk. If someone wants a good multicore CPU go grab a Q6600 for $277.99 and be done with it.”

G,

Remember when I wrote that a bought the Q6600 for my wife’s new machine, “just for fun”? Well, there it was, sitting in a p33 Gigabyte small form factor board calling me ever so quietly, on a daily basis. It was unbearable! I would get up at night and pace.

Resistance was futile! I capitulated to the call. Sadly, I pulled the 955EE out of my machine and swapped the chips. (I pulled the swap without her knowledge, of course.) Slapped the Q6600 into the P5WDG2-WS-PRO with stealth like precision, and VIOLA! Ayatollah, of Rockn’ Rolla! The benchies FLEW off the charts! HOOYA! 3d-MARK ’06 @ 11350! 95% percentile (14952 Ranked)! (Crossfire 1900XTX setup) This was a 276 dollar upgrade on an 18 month old machine! Best upgrade since a 486DX-33 from a 386-40, bar none.

And, my wife ain’t getting it back it till YORKIE!

I’ve changed weapons in F.E.A.R. The speed is so good, the shotgun and I have reestablished a new relationship, with MAX settings!

It’s time to reevaluate DOOM 3 and QUAKE 4. I’ll keep ya posted.

By the way, your above comment is law!

SPARKS

Anonymous said...

AMD is changing the name of the Barcelona desktop products, hoping no one will notice.

http://www.vr-zone.com/articles/AMD_Revised_Desktop_Model_Number_Structure/5330.html#Scene_1

How fucking pathetic.

LOL

JumpingJack said...

I'm not interested in flaming Scientia here. I just want to know if anyone can explain explain to a simple process guy how the heck IPC can increase as clock rates go up? Because I'm assuming that the only way a processor breaks away from a linear increase with clockspeed is for IPC to increase.

It can't, all else being the same, if all you vary is the core clock the best you can hope for is a 1:1 scaling, that never happens though ... as other bottlenecks manifest themselves in subtle ways. As an example, though average BW through say the L3 FIFO by be below the theoretical limit for the cache, peak bandwidth at through this point at, say, 2.6 GHz may exceed this limit more often than at 2.0 GHz, as such IPC usually appears slightly lower as the core clock goes up, and other clockings stay fixed ..... i.e. increment multipliers of the core but mem BW, L3, HT all stay the same.

Scientia is blowin' it out of the dark orifice and is engaging in wishful thinking!

Roborat, Ph.D said...

Scientia said: "I'll wait for faster clocks to start saying the sky is falling "

He may wait for a very long time. Looks like 65nm K10 can't scale. See launch details of Phenom, which is supposed to be easier to scale than Opteron. It can't get over the 2.6Ghz hill!

Giant said...


Resistance was futile! I capitulated to the call. Sadly, I pulled the 955EE out of my machine and swapped the chips. (I pulled the swap without her knowledge, of course.) Slapped the Q6600 into the P5WDG2-WS-PRO with stealth like precision, and VIOLA! Ayatollah, of Rockn’ Rolla! The benchies FLEW off the charts! HOOYA! 3d-MARK ’06 @ 11350! 95% percentile (14952 Ranked)! (Crossfire 1900XTX setup) This was a 276 dollar upgrade on an 18 month old machine! Best upgrade since a 486DX-33 from a 386-40, bar none.


Indeed! I pulled my E6600 out of my P5B Deluxe about six months ago and put a Q6600 in. The results were just crazy. I can run two video encodes at once while rendering in Houdini. The system is nearly twice as fast as my E6600 when doing this sort of multitasking. In games there's not much difference from the E6600 (Supreme Commander is the exception) but the E6600 already delivered an AWESOME gaming experience (My card is a single XFX 8800 GTS XXX 640MB).

For $280? It's about the best buy one can make now! One thing is for sure, Yorkfield with 1600mhz FSB, 12MB L2 cache and SSE4 is just going to scream!

By the way, your above comment is law!

Absolutely. The price/performance of the Q6600 is unbeatable.

I read Roborat's latest entry with great interest. As we've seen from the current single threaded Barcelona performance, a 2.6Ghz Phenom will be no faster than the current $280 2.4Ghz Kentsfield Q6600.

yomamafor2 said...

giant
2.5Ghz Tri Core? That's pathetic. BaronMatrix previously predicted a speed of 3.4Ghz for Tri core CPU.

He also predicted a 4Ghz Barcelona with Rev B3...

Anonymous said...

"It can't, all else being the same, if all you vary is the core clock the best you can hope for is a 1:1 scaling, that never happens though ..."

jumpingjack, I am not an architectural person by any stretch of the imagination (I'm a process guy, which is why I keep making fun of Dementia), but could it be possible the performance of K10 is currently limited by something other than the clock circuit?

Suppose for example there is additional latency in one of the cache levels (that gets sped up on a new tapeout) or something is done to the HT - this COULD potentially yield more than 1:1 improvement if the fix is done at the same time as a clockspeed bump.

Note I said COULD, and also my hypothetical implies that the performance limiter is NOT the clockspeed. If you look at Intel, they got very marginal performance improvements through things like more cache (albeit very small gains) at the same clock speed.

That being said I agree with your analysis - generally the best you can hope for is 1:1 scaling (and even that is difficult). However K10 is "new" enough and could have problems elsewhere in the architecture that could lead to other improvements. This is different than Scientia's claims that a simple clock speedup may gain more than 1:1 scaling, this implies AMD is either fixing or improving other areas of the architecture on future tapeouts.

Thoughts?

InTheKnow said...

Sparks said...
Who the hell would be crazy enough to challenge you????

Lol.

Lots of people actually, and rightly so. I'm hardly infallible. But I am right often enough that my employer hasn't felt a need to show me the door. :)

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