7.02.2007

Warning! Eating Too Much Crow Can Cause Mental Health Problems

And so the back pedaling and the shrinking of expectations are in full swing now that AMD officially confirms that it has decided to sell half-working processors.

I can remember recent blogs from Scientia that cheerfully declared:
“There are some pretty good indications that AMD could launch 100Mhz higher with 2.4Ghz instead of 2.3 and then go to 2.6Ghz in Q4”.
Or even this:
… “(in Q3) Barcelona should begin to take back at least the top end server sales (which are now going to Clovertown) and re-establish AMD's server chip ASP's”.

But when AMD announced that Barcelona will only ship with speeds no greater than 2Ghz, Scientia said in his recent blog: “I would have to say that the news is mixed”. I had to stop reading his blog as I was beginning to find it difficult to continue while I was rolling on the floor...

As usual we can always expect Scientia to find the good in every bad thing that comes AMD’s way. Here is a man who thinks that adding to the truth is analogous to impartiality. The bad news of course is the anemic launch speeds but then he expects everyone to think that there is good in meeting schedules with unready parts. While the launch announcement says a lot about AMD’s desperation and lack of financial discipline in trying to ramp a broken process, it says a lot more about Scientia’s willingness to accept AMD’s excuses and adjust his outlook accordingly.

And as you would expect, not everyone can take Scientia's blog in a cheery manner. One poster on his blog wrote which I find hilarious:
Mo posted: I have read your views and posts, You sci are a sugar coating machine. Everything that comes out of your mouth about AMD is thoroughly sugarcoated and you have been proven wrong numerous times. Yet you keep making such false claims and AMD does not do launch without products. Yet AMD has been doing that since end last year… 2.0Ghz max for k10 is disappointing indeed no matter how much you sugar coat it.

Gee, I wonder what drove Mo to say such a thing.

8 comments:

SPARKS said...

Doc, send this link over to Dementia. It seems there will be NO more chairs to rearrange on the AMD Titanic! Even the motherboard partners are bailing!

http://www.digitimes.com/mobos/a20070702PD201.html

SPARKS

Anonymous said...

Rolling on the floor
Rolling on the floor
Rolling on the floor
Floor floor floor floor floor

Bias definition make Scientia go crazy
They always claim no preference
But we know he is big dummy
He's the F to the A, N, B the O, the Y
And can't no other fanboy spin it off like he

He's biasedlicious
His spin stay vicious
He be up in the Zone
We're all witness
He sets the spin meter OFF OFF
And we be watching on the screen just to watch him qwock

Anonymous said...

I think you need Abinsten to the list of eating crow causing mental helath problems.

He now has 2.8Ghz chips out 6 months after the initial 2.0 chips (putting them somewhere ~Feb).

I got no problems with people being fans and 'rooting' for companies to do well (afterall fan comes from the word "fanatic"), but to just start making up stuff and stating it as fact with no backing is ridiculous.

...But then again it is rather likely that AMD has 2X Intel's process yelds (I mean fact as Abinstein proved this in one of his blogs), especially considering the GPM's and relative health of the 2 companies...

...and certainly AMD is just stockpiling all of those fast chips that are going through their manufacturing lines to sneak up on Intel - I mean why, if you are losing money would you want to sell a higher margin part when you can just stockpile it for later? Heck they should just fuse those 2.4 GHz chips (or undervolt them?)_ and rebadge them at 2.0GHz to help "meet the xustomer demand for energy efficient chips"!

I think it all of us who may have opposing points of view that are insane....

Roborat, Ph. D. said...

he calls us, roborat and his anonymous gutter rats. i kind of like that that. Sounds like an animated series.

anyway, sorry Sparks, i have been secretly banned from Scientia's blog since Sunday. I think I manage to upset him or maybe it the 2.0Ghz AMD announcement making him take another serving of crow. My reply to his rant got deleted so i'm not going to bother.

Anyway, AMD says Phenom is on track (for now) so expect Scientia to take this as gospel.

Roborat, Ph. D. said...

Scientia said in response to Mo:

K10 will be supported at launch unlike K8. The yields should also be better. There are at least some improvements.

"Better" is a relative word. Better than the worst yield in the history of semiconductor manufacturing? This claim can be anywhere between 1% to 100%. 1% is better than zero. See how his claims pretend to say something but in fact means nothing.

How can AMD have good yields when it can only ship the 4th bin. Where is bin 1 at 2.6Ghz, bin 2 at 2.4Ghz. etc. When you can only ship from bin 4, your yields are definitely hovering at 20%. So again, AMD is shipping Barcelona at a huge loss. You will never see Intel do this.

Anonymous said...

Scientia:

If the launch is actually August (which is the way I read it) they would have to be shipping processors at least 3 weeks prior because AMD never does a launch without chips available.

You are kidding me here?

Brisbanes were launched on December 5 and none were anywhere to be seen for at least a month. The Brisbane 5000s which were supposedly launched with the rest of them didn't show up anywhere until May.

The BE parts launched almost a month ago. Where are they?

http://techreport.com/onearticle.x/12728

Then there were the 4X4s which took a while to show up.

http://techreport.com/onearticle.x/11378

We won't even mention the 2600/2400.

Has AMD not paper launched anything except the 2900 in the last year? What a joke.

July 02, 2007 1:20 PM

Anonymous said...

"Anyway, AMD says Phenom is on track (for now) so expect Scientia to take this as gospel."

Didn't they also say Barcelona was on schedule and Barcy would be "introduced" in Q2? All they need to do is release a 2GHz phenom and say the feedback from theor 4x4 users is their primary concern is energy efficiency (unless of course you are plugging in FX74's in the past, then obviously it was all about performance and power means nothing in that segment).

It's just a matter of getting the right spin - there is not a single announcement from AMD in the past year that doesn't have carefully parsed words and a general timeline which can conveniently be re-interpreted after the fact.

In all fairness to AMD though they did say they would SHIP 65nm processors by the end of the year (which I think the press mistakenly interperted as "availability"). Of course if you go back and look at the ORIGINAL AMD 65nm plans you'll bust a gut. (The original plan for F36 was to start up on 65nm)

Roborat, Ph. D. said...

anonymous said: "Didn't they also say Barcelona was on schedule and Barcy would be "introduced" in Q2?"

to be honest, between the motherboard makes and AMD, i trust the MB makers more. So far leaks from them have been accurate compared to AMD's damage control announcements. From the dried up channel of Q3'06 because of Dell, to the inventory build up in Q4'06 and then to the delayed Barcelona leak in Q1, they've all been true. And now Phenom. i don't find it hard to believe.