"At heart, we're a reverse engineering design company" - AMD

"Advanced Micro Devices Inc closed a deal to spin off its manufacturing operations on Monday, and said it expects the new company to assume responsibility for paying off about $1.1 billion of debt.
The plants which make AMD's chips are now part of a $5 billion joint venture with Advanced Technology Investment Co, of Abu Dhabi, temporarily called The Foundry Co." - Reuters

In a very creative way, AMD has ridden itself of its crippling debt and the massive burden of capital investment going forward. While AMD may sound as if this strategic move brings them closer to their core expertise, it is without a doubt that this back-to-the-corner decision was the only way for AMD to remain viable. This new lease allows AMD, maybe for a few more product lifecycles to continue and remain as the only challenger to Intel.

At the bleeding edge of semiconductor technology, it has yet to be seen whether a fabless company can challenge one with a foundry. In the not so bleeding edge such as memory products companies with their own foundry like Samsung are dominating over the rest of the industry but competition remains vibrant. But in the x86 space where process leadership creates cost and performance advantages, history isn't kind to fabless companies. Starting this week, AMD is effectively what Transmeta was back in 2000. The difference is Transmeta had a lot of hype going for them and probably with a more compelling product offering in the mobile space.

Another wider-than-expected loss for AMD

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - PC chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.N) posted a wider-than-expected loss in the fourth quarter as worldwide demand for PCs continued to shrink.
AMD reported on Thursday a net loss of $1.42 billion, or $2.34 a share for the quarter ending December 27, compared with a loss of $1.77 billion, or $3.06 a share, a year ago. Excluding certain items, the company posted a loss of 69 cents a share. Analysts, on average, had expected a loss of 56 cents a share, according to Reuters Estimates.
Revenue for the second-largest maker of central processing units for personal computers fell 33 percent to $1.16 billion, compared to analysts' estimates of $1.19 billion, according to Reuters Estimates. AMD said it expected revenue in the first quarter to decrease from the fourth quarter.

If AMD never made money during the best market condition, what hope is there when the economy is at its worst. For the first time the talk of bankruptcy for this company can never be more serious. Looking at the bright side of things, the Zoners could finally get a life.

Wait no more

If some of you have some spare money by the end of this month to buy a new computer and have been waiting for some comparison between AMD's 45nm Shanghai against Intel's new Nehalem, well wait no more: Link (Thanks to Axel).

The good news is that PhenomII has shown significant improvement over Phenom. But then this shouldn't be a surprise considering Phenom was a step back from Athlon64. Two years and a process node later, AMD finally defeats Intel's Q6600. If some call this as AMD being back in the game, so be it. All I wish is for some of our friends to return and have something to say. Their silence is deafening.

New Desktop

After years of being mobile, I finally decided to get myself a cheap but capable desktop from a custom build site. The system is intended to become a home file server, video editing and casual gaming. The specs follows:

MOTHERBOARD: GigaByte GA-EP45T-DS3R Intel P45 Express CrossFireX Chipset LGA775 FSB1600 DDR3/1600 Mainboard w/GbLAN,USB2.0,IEEE1394a,&7.1Audio
CPU: Intel® Core™ 2 Quad Q8200 @ 2.33GHz 1333FSB 4MB L2 **Overclockable S&S*** Cache 64-bit (Read the reviews and I am already hating this CPU)
MEMORY: 4GB PC12800 DDR3/1600mhz Dual Channel Memory (G.SKILL NQ Series w/Heat Spreader ***Overclockable XXX***)
VIDEO: ATI Radeon HD 4870 PCI-E x16 1GB DDR5 Video Card
OPT DRIVE: SONY DUAL FORMAT 20X DVD±R/±RW + CD-R/RW DRIVE DUAL LAYER
HDD: 1TB SATA-II 3.0Gb/s 32M Cache 7200RPM Hard Drive (I know i should get 2 HDDs each for OS and Data)
Total < $1000

OS: Vista Ultimate (i get free SW from MS)
DISPLAY: Dell 22" 1900x1080p S2209W ($236 from Dell)

The Intel Core i7 platform at the moment is quite expensive and it was one of the main reason why I chose the lamest of all the 45nm Quad core. The CPU / Motherboard will be the next upgrade path I take in a couple of years and choosing one at the bottom of the table should hasten the transition. And since it is the video card that does most of the work these days I had to go with AMD's 4870 - best value for money if you ask me.

Feel free to criticize and show how one can do better without breaking the bank.

AMD Bankcrupt in 2009

Despite an improving economy, large-scale capital spending projects continue to be delayed in favor of maintenance spending. Technology shares continue to lag badly, and Advanced Micro Devices files bankruptcy. - Doug Kass, "20 Surprises for 2009".

"AMD ends 2008 (until we see fourth-quarter results) with $1.3 billion in cash, four times that amount in debt, and an operating loss of $1.9 billion over the last four quarters. Add to the mix an unprecedented slowdown in global economic demand and AMD's own tenuous market share in servers and PCs, and it becomes increasingly difficult to see the company's failure as an outlying event". - Michael Goodman, The Street.

2008 was supposed to be the year AMD's went bankrupt but was averted by a unique financial agreement with an entity that was enjoying record oil revenues. But the realities on the ground are changing and rapidly getting worse. While Intel continues to spend on 32nm, AMD on the other hand will look at someone else to make the several billion dollar gamble. The bet includes the following: a) that market demand is there to recover the investment, b) AMD will have viable products and c) AMD is still around (with an x86-license) to design chips. Terrible odds if you ask me.

Bad For Intel, Catastrophic for AMD

Intel Corp. said late Wednesday that it expects financial results for its current, fourth fiscal quarter to be "below expectations," as the technology bellwether grapples with a flagging economy.
The chip maker said it now expects fourth-quarter revenue to be $9 billion, "plus or minus $300 million," which is lower than the company's previous expectation of between $10.1 billion and $10.9 billion.

Never mind Intel, at targeted gross margins of 55%, it will do just fine. The recuperating AMD will be the worst hit. Yet again, we can expect AMD to break it's promise of returning to profitability in the second half of 2008. We all saw what happened to AMD when Intel's gross margins drops close to 50% and needs to clear inventory. It's safe to assume things won't be different.

For now you can expect AMD to make noise and show its impoverished investors (AMD @ $2.57/share) that it is taking the necessary steps. It already announced laying off 500 employees. Soon they'll be talking about 32nm and reviving Bobcat. It's about being too little too late for AMD these days.

AMD comes out the closet, says no longer a real man

"Real men have Fabs" - Jerry Saunders, former AMD CEO.

After all the dodging and lying about not having any plans going fabless, AMD finally admits that it is in fact going to sell its fabs. They intend to remain a minority share holder and team up with a company who haven’t got a single clue about semiconductors. But none of that matters because they have lots of money to spend. And in a time when the usual lenders are looking for a some kind of a bailout themselves, it’s either this arrangement or Chapter 11 for AMD.

"On Oct. 7, 2008, AMD and the Advanced Technology Investment Company announced the intention to create a new global enterprise, The Foundry Company, to address the growing global demand for independent, leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing. There is a strong shift to foundries occurring – particularly to foundries with the capacity to produce devices using leading-edge process technologies. With The Foundry Company, AMD will be able to unlock the value of its world-class manufacturing capability – by making it available to a growing community of fabless semiconductor companies. " - AMD's New Global Foundry page.

There's a lot already said about AMD's move. The best one that highlights the concerns more clearly is from Fabtech:

Another aspect that concerned me was the notion pumped out by AMD that demand for leading-edge foundry capacity was something that was in strong demand. Ask SMIC, Chartered or UMC how much of its capacity is allocated to 65nm-and-below production and you will find it is very small... Also, if demand for foundry capacity was that strong, then why are wafer ASPs in decline and the major foundries cutting CapEx each year?... Even worse is the fact that SMIC has struggled since birth to actually turn a profit, so why should we think that a new foundry start-up in Europe (and the U.S.) will fare any better?

The "growing trend" to go fabless is a decision forced upon companies due to the rising cost of running a Fab. This alarming trend have been identified by Intel in the late 90's. AMD knew this day was coming and set a goal of 30% market share just to avoid ending up where it is now. It's entertaining to see how AMD is making it all appear as if it was an advantageous choice.

How can it be advantageous when AMD will now have to ask another company to spend $Billions every time it wants new equipment for a new process technology. How can it not be disadvantageous when your main competitor do not have such bureaucratic problems. Short term, this move by AMD will buy them time for the next year or two. Long term, I can only see AMD becoming the next Transmeta. When The Foundry Company starts losing large sums of money they will become cost conscious and that's when problems begin. Against Intel's "tick-tock" execution, AMD will only struggle to keep up.