tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602471396566186819.post1217884910016167776..comments2023-10-26T15:06:30.940+00:00Comments on AIMeD Corporation: An Impartial Assessment of the Likelihood of an AMD BankruptcyRoborat, Ph.Dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04845879517177508741noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602471396566186819.post-48068426022410439452007-05-02T09:21:00.000+00:002007-05-02T09:21:00.000+00:00"it is possible that AMD could shift some ATI prod..."it is possible that AMD could shift some ATI production to Chartered or to its own FABs to help minimize the loss and more fully utilize capacity."<BR/><BR/>AMD is doing the ATI work at TSMC, no? Chartered runs a totally different 65nm process than TSMC and simply "shifting" production to Chartered (or for that matter AMD) is not a simple task. This requires new lot files as transistor performance between the two processes will not be the same - this could mean anything from tweaking various process steps (litho, implant, gate loop, etc...) to needing to re-layout many of the process layers or even tweaking design. This would not be a trivial task and would not likely be cost beneficial unless it was a permanent shift. It would also take some time to do this.<BR/><BR/>Also I would find it unlikely that the contract with Chartered does not specify CPU's (speculation on my end). <BR/><BR/>Scientia - your K10 volume predictions on your blog are flat out wrong. You give an example of a 1/2 year K10 ramp to ~30% by end of year which you translate to ~7.5% total year. Unfortunately you neglect to factor in that this is SERVER ONLY and thus the 7.5% estimate is the production % of server volume which is likely about ~2-2.5% of total CPU production if you estimate server as ~1/3 of AMD's CPU output.<BR/><BR/>This will not DENT revenue #'s in 2007 - even Hector has acknowledged this, but for some reason you continue to cross your fingers and say "maybe" it will. Do you really think when Hector said that he was focusing on design wins in H2'07 he was holding out hope that they could see significant revenue from K10 this year?<BR/><BR/>If AMD gets a bump in Q3/Q4 it will be from seasonal demand increasing and unit costs coming down due to fuller conversion to 65nm, not K10 sales. The real question will be what impact Intel's Q3 server chip price cuts will have. If AMD is forced to lower prices on the 90nm Opterons they will really be bleeding in server space as there is no way there will be volume K10 in Q3 which will allow AMD to maintain server ASP's. <BR/><BR/>My best guess - AMD will pair their operating losses in each sucessive quarter but Q2 and Q3 will be red, and there is small chance Q4 may be in the black (<25%). If AMD continues to see the growth in mobile that they have been there is an outside shot Q3 will be positive (from operating income perspective). At some point, AMD may be forced to choose between volume share and profitability - at some point it would seem they need to give up on this 30% share target, get ASP's up and restore some financial health/sanity.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602471396566186819.post-1533073477081615572007-05-01T19:37:00.000+00:002007-05-01T19:37:00.000+00:00Actually, I think that was a fairly decent analysi...Actually, I think that was a fairly decent analysis. It is true that theoretically AMD could be in big trouble.<BR/><BR/>Now, I notice that you didn't take into consideration that sales for AMD may bump up in Q3 and Q4. But, I understand that. There really is no way to be certain just how competitive K10 will be, how many will actually be produced, and if there is any current pent up demand. For example, it is also possible that some of Intel's current sales were due to pent up demand because of Prescott. However, there isn't any good to know without waiting to year's end and see what actually happens.<BR/><BR/>I think about the only other thing I could add would be that AMD does have a fall back position of sorts. For example, let's say that the Chartered contract is more wafers than AMD actually needs because of unexpected low demand. It is possible that AMD could shift some ATI production to Chartered or to its own FABs to help minimize the loss and more fully utilize capacity. Beyond that, I'm not sure what AMD could do.Scientia from AMDZonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11307174874527564058noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602471396566186819.post-45172634351018601172007-04-27T23:58:00.000+00:002007-04-27T23:58:00.000+00:00http://www.fudzilla.com/index.php?option=com_conte...http://www.fudzilla.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=703&Itemid=1<BR/><BR/>AMD/ATI has officially stated that they are not releasing the 2900XTX and their latest line which is 6 months late will only manage to compete with the 8800GTS. <BR/><BR/>AMD BK Q2 08Heathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02874447532379732057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602471396566186819.post-75269803055016521962007-04-27T19:38:00.000+00:002007-04-27T19:38:00.000+00:00Good read, and your not partial one way or another...Good read, and your not partial one way or another (Unlike others bloggers...)<BR/><BR/>I'm hoping AMD doesn't go under, I can't wait to see if R600 and Barcelona will be competitive,<BR/><BR/>And whats with never being able to log into my blogger account, its getting quite anoyying, well i can log in but I can't post.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602471396566186819.post-65139010510305918522007-04-27T00:42:00.000+00:002007-04-27T00:42:00.000+00:00You are the devilYou are the devilAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602471396566186819.post-7634720443513213942007-04-27T00:41:00.000+00:002007-04-27T00:41:00.000+00:00I agree with you man.I agree with you man.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602471396566186819.post-36386941929019973082007-04-27T00:40:00.000+00:002007-04-27T00:40:00.000+00:00I really think you should start talking out of you...<I> I really think you should start talking out of your ass.. </I><BR/><BR/>i tried in the past. Maybe i'm not very good at it. Anyway this way when nobody comments, i'd like to think people agrees with me.Roborat, Ph.Dhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04845879517177508741noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602471396566186819.post-88601851647237039552007-04-27T00:05:00.000+00:002007-04-27T00:05:00.000+00:00I really think you should start talking out of you...I really think you should start talking out of your ass like sharikou and scientia and maybe you will start getting more traffic because apparently facts does not generate much interest.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602471396566186819.post-86760234072378676192007-04-26T22:31:00.000+00:002007-04-26T22:31:00.000+00:00Great job Dr. Roborat. You are a true beacon of li...Great job Dr. Roborat. You are a true beacon of light in this fud filled darkness. <BR/><BR/>Also i would like you to comment on this bit of news where according to dailytech the 2900XTX gets spanked by the 8800 GTX in most of the gaming benchmarks it seems just like intel Nvidia need not release any better than their current offering to beat AMD: <BR/><BR/>http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=7052<BR/><BR/>Chalk this one up to AMD's long list of recent failures and Barcelona is next. <BR/><BR/>AMD BK Q2 08Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2602471396566186819.post-51680361988314731032007-04-26T19:22:00.000+00:002007-04-26T19:22:00.000+00:00whoa, too deep bro! - keanuwhoa, too deep bro! - keanuAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com